What will change look like in 2024?

At MDX, we are fascinated by the interconnectedness of change. You could call it generalist thinking, systems thinking, holistic thinking…we don’t mind too much how you refer to it, but for 2024, we believe it to be more crucial than ever to think about what’s going on out there in this interdependent way.

Whilst we don’t have answers to some of the very big questions on our and many others’ minds right now, we do have some observations—things we think are ‘ones to watch’ this year, perspectives that are worth bearing in mind as we move through this undoubtedly seminal moment for technology and society.

1. AI shines a spotlight on organisational baggage.

It might not sound exciting, but trust us on this one being important. With a vast number of industries scrambling to embrace the potential of artificial intelligence and look at the future in fundamentally different ways, we may well see many of them butting up against things that have been stuffed into the closet for a good while longer than they should have. Technical and organisational baggage like data structure, code debt and information flow may be the hindrances to AI implementation at scale that many companies wish they had addressed earlier.

2. Reinventing interface–inter...space?

Human input and computer output has largely followed a similar pattern up until this point. We are used to giving as specific an input as possible and getting as specific an output as possible as a result. The generative and flexible nature of artificial intelligence somewhat turns this model on its head.

John Maeda in a recent course quite smartly described this difference when he said that we previously expected precision as an output (i.e. a calculator always tells you 2+2=4), but we are now looking at something more like “high quality imprecision". This in turn affects how we behave around computers—perhaps our inputs become in some ways less precise too.

There are too many potential impacts and challenges to be reckoned with to list them all here, but here’s one to consider: with a reduction in ‘precision’ (perhaps we could also call it ‘certainty’) in the outcome of human/machine interaction, which interfaces and form factors will most comfortably handle unpredictable or uncertain outputs? Perhaps there is a reason that many sci-fi, superintelligent assistants took the forms of holographic, adaptive, ‘display anywhere’ type entities?

Whether the answer is mixed reality à la Apple Vision Pro (released last week), non-screen-based devices like the Humane pin or the Rabbit R1, or see-through screens like the TV technology displayed at this year’s CES show, we may find the change in predictability of outcome also influencing our needs and demands on physical devices and form factors—is the rectangular glass screen still the top of the pyramid?

Not only this, but Human/Machine Interface (HMI) will face challenges too: how do I design for a lack of predictability in outcome? What principles is my design system based upon, and how can I build in flexibility without relinquishing control? What dimensions do these principles control, and where might I potentially employ generative technology itself to aid in designing responses to uncertain outputs?

3. The Mechanical Turk Enlightenment—humans as operators

What if we realised that much of what we thought was ‘necessary’ digital interface—that is, flows, screens, control panels, and so on—actually turned out to be simple operations required to ‘run’ a digital ‘machine’? Until now, these could only be successfully operated by a human being’s intervention. What if they didn’t need to exist any more?

Considering AI’s capability as a means to handle unpredictability and respond flexibly (as mentioned in #2 above), combined with the multimodality that so many AI creators are striving to achieve, we may well see AI models becoming the interface between the digital and physical world in a way which negates the need for such human, manual operation. Even seemingly small examples such as the self-docking capabilities of the Pebble RV, shown at CES, point to a world of physical problem solving that is unlike what the information age has given us thus far.

We think it is the very beginning of this development, and we think that this lens for navigating potential AI solutions could be a very powerful one. So this year we’ll be asking ourselves: am I the operator here? Or am I an active participant?

4. AI acceptance precipitates societal change

Unlike slower advances of old, we may be experiencing the second significant technological advancement within less than a century. This means we may be able to use what we learned from the first one to guide us in navigating the second. Particularly when we are talking about product and service design, we play an active role in shaping how these technologies are used and to what end—for better or for worse.

It seems at this point inevitable that AI—even more so than it already it – will become part of the fabric of our lives, and the use of AI-based solutions for getting things done will become as second nature as many other tasks. Indeed, references to AI may disappear altogether, as it simply becomes part of our expected tech stack; “I used AI to…” may simply become “I did…”. So what habits do we want to build? What affordances do we want to give people? What trajectories do we want to set in motion with how we consult, facilitate, design, and build?

5. Life on the edge – data control and privacy in the spotlight (again)

We have long asked ourselves when we’ll see the next genuinely impactful developments in data privacy and identity management. Despite a backlash against tech giants and government data collection powers, what solutions have emerged that really shift the balance away from centralised repositories and towards self-sovereign data management?

With more focus on data in general (‘data is the new oil’ 2.0, anyone?), and the public realisation that really effective, sci-fi-esque AI assistants will need to know a lot about you to work well for them, the consumer demand for privacy-assured data handling could be set to grow yet again—but will it be enough? Will we finally see on-device, non-exposed data handling, committed approaches to data minimisation, and perhaps even entirely new cloud computing approaches to meet mainstream user demand for data privacy?

Whether or not Apple’s long awaited AI solution meets this need, as some expect, remains to be seen – we expect the rise of intelligent agents and assistants to be accompanied with a raft of ‘this is really creepy’ sentiment that may serve to expedite the discussion. And yet, with convenience tending to have trumped caution in previous iterations of this debate, should it be left to consumers to demand privacy, or is it again up to us designers, technologists and to legislators to enshrine privacy and data sovereignty as a fundamental building block of the solutions that will take us into the next information age?

Jack Mitchell is the Director of Product at MDX by MetaDesign. You can contact him at jack.mitchell@metadesign.com

Image created by Jack Mitchell via DALL·E